The Influence of Turnout of the Results of the Referendum to Amend the Consti tution to include a clause on the Rights of the Unborn

he Referendum on the Eighth Amendment to the Constitution, held on J . 8th September, 1983, endorsed by a two-to-one majority the insertion into the Constitution of Ireland a clause concerning the right to life of the unborn. A feature of the poll that has attracted considerable attention was the low turnout. Only 54.6 per cent of the electorate voted in the Referendum, and the high abstention rate naturally fuelled speculation as to the "true" level of support for the amendment in the population as a whole. One interpretation of the high abstention rate is that it represented a protest against the holding of the Referendum. Alternatively, the low turn­ out has been seen as a rejection of the substance of the proposed amendment by people who did not feel strongly enough to vote or were inhibited by public opinion from voting "no". The second interpretation implies that the "true" level of the "no" sentiment in the population is much higher than the 33 per cent of votes recorded in the Referendum. The possibility that the low turnout resulted in an understatement of the "true" level of support for the proposed amendment has not been as widely entertained, but the pre­ dictability of a "yes" majority might have reduced the incentive of those in